With the recent advancement of AI, humanity’s future has been the focal point of society’s attention. In order to address this topic, this post is going to take a break from coding and take you through a research article published on Nature Geoscience entitled “Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly”.
According the simulations run in this study, Earth will undergo a monumental transformation in about 250 million years. Our continents will coalesce into a massive supercontinent called Pangea Ultima. This event is forecasted to occur against a backdrop of increasing solar radiation and substantial geographical upheavals, sending the Humidex metrics to levels indicating imminent heat stroke across the supercontinent, reducing habitable areas, especially under higher CO2 scenarios.
YouTube Tutorial
The video that goes through the above in streaming format is below.
Let’s break down the different parts of the planetary change:
The Supercontinent Effect
Pangea Ultima’s emergence is expected to disrupt global climatic patterns drastically. This vast landmass, positioned largely in the region of the equator, will experience extreme temperatures far from the temperate influence of the oceans. Simulations suggest significant increases in land-only global mean annual temperatures, which could spike by up to 29.8°C above pre-industrial levels under certain CO2 scenarios,
Solar Influence
The sun’s luminosity, projected to rise by 2.5%, introduces additional force of radiation. This increase though seemingly slight, has cascading effects on the planet’s energy balance. The Hadley Centre's Coupled Model (HadCM3L) projects that future solar conditions, combined with high CO2 levels (410-816 ppm) will push Earth past critical climate thresholds. The impact of the heightened solar energy is particularly profound on the supercontinent, where altered albedo and emissivity due to lack of polar ice amplify temperature increases.
Mammal Life
The more common sustained temperatures at 40°C (dry-bulb temperature) or 35°C (wet-bulb temperature) as Pangea Ultima evolves makes mammal’s survival the more impossible. High temperature combined with high humidex would lead to drastic reductions in habitable areas, especially under higher CO2 scenarios.
Future Habitability
With temperature variations, precipitation patterns, and CO2 dynamics made clear by the Hadley Centre's Coupled Model (HadCM3L) and the spatial-continuous integration (SCION) biogeochemistry model, habitability can be more precisely modelled. They reveal with every doubling of CO2 from 280 ppm to 1,120 ppm, habitability markedly decreases, constrained by both the physical environment and mammal physiological limits.
Tectonic Activity and Weathering
As continents converge, tectonic activity could lead to increased volcanic outgassing, potentially raising CO2 levels further. Yet, this is moderated by the silicate weathering process, which forms bicarbonate with carbon dioxide in rainwater and silica in rocks. The silicate weathering process are in turn influenced by the continent's topography and the resulting precipitation patterns. The spatial-continuous integration (SCION) biogeochemistry model, using data on CO2 degassing rates and weathering feedbacks, suggests that these geological processes might slightly mitigate, but not prevent, the adverse conditions leading to reduced habitability.
Lessons Learned
This kind of comprehensive modelling not only provides insight into Earth’s future and its mammals, but also that of planets beyond our solar system.
GPT 4o’s Solutions to Climate Change
Since this blog was published just before the release of GPT 4o, I thought to include some solutions it has suggested on solving climate change:
1. Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Transition to Renewable Energy: Shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.
Energy Efficiency: Improve energy efficiency in buildings, transportation, and industries to reduce overall energy consumption.
Sustainable Agriculture: Promote practices that reduce methane emissions and improve carbon sequestration in soils.
2. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Direct Air Capture: Develop technologies that can capture CO2 directly from the atmosphere.
Natural Solutions: Enhance natural carbon sinks such as forests, wetlands, and oceans by protecting and restoring ecosystems.
3. Policy and Regulation
Carbon Pricing: Implement carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems to incentivize emission reductions.
Regulations and Standards: Set stringent emission standards for industries, vehicles, and power plants.
4. Innovation and Technology
Research and Development: Invest in R&D for new technologies that can reduce emissions and enhance resilience to climate impacts.
Green Infrastructure: Develop infrastructure that supports low-carbon living, such as public transportation, energy-efficient buildings, and smart grids.
5. Behavioral Changes
Lifestyle Changes: Encourage sustainable practices such as reducing meat consumption, using public transportation, and minimizing waste.
Education and Awareness: Increase public awareness about climate change and the importance of individual actions.
6. International Cooperation
Global Agreements: Strengthen international agreements like the Paris Agreement to ensure global cooperation in reducing emissions.
Financial Support: Provide financial and technical support to developing countries to help them transition to low-carbon economies.
7. Adaptation Strategies
Climate Resilience: Develop infrastructure and systems that can withstand climate impacts, such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events.
Community Planning: Integrate climate adaptation into urban planning and disaster management strategies.
8. Reforestation and Afforestation
Tree Planting: Increase efforts in planting trees to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.
Forest Management: Implement sustainable forest management practices to prevent deforestation and promote biodiversity.
Examples of Actions:
Governments: Implement policies that promote renewable energy and reduce emissions, such as subsidies for solar power or regulations on vehicle emissions.
Businesses: Invest in sustainable practices and technologies, such as energy-efficient manufacturing processes or electric vehicle fleets.
Individuals: Reduce personal carbon footprints by using energy-efficient appliances, driving less, and supporting sustainable products.
Although these strategies won’t prevent the eventual merge of Earth’s continents, they will help in making our current livelihood more sustainable.
You Look Like a Thing and I Love You
A way to get the most out of a small dataset is to make small changes to the data so that one bit of data becomes many slightly different bits. This strategy is known as data augmentation. A simple way to turn a single image into two images, for example, is to make a mirror image of it. You could also cut out parts of it or change its texture slightly.
Data augmentation works on text, too, but it’s rare. To turn a few phrases into many, one strategy is to replace various parts of the phrase with words that mean similar things.
Udemy Python vs. R course
My Udemy course on learning Python and R side by side is now live for anyone who might be interested in learning these two popular data analytics languages together.